BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s economy expanded 0.5% on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter, according to a Reuters poll on Friday, a slightly more optimistic figure than estimated by the central bank amid still-high inflation.
The median forecast was taken from estimates provided by 15 analysts, whose predictions for expansion in the quarter versus the same period in 2022 fluctuated between a contraction of 0.7% and growth of 1%.
The technical team of Colombia’s central bank last week forecast third-quarter growth of 0.4% in its monetary policy report, after raising its prediction for full-year expansion to 1.2% this year, from the previous 0.9% forecast.
The economy grew 7% on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of last year, when it was still enjoying a post-pandemic rebound.
Colombia’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 13.25% for the fourth time in a row last week, despite government pressure to lower borrowing costs as uncertainty about the impact of inflation lingers.
The decision was backed by five board members, while two directors voted for a 25-basis-point cut.
Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla, who represents the government on the central bank’s board, predicted this week that 2023 growth will handily surpass market expectations and reach 1.8%, citing public works, housing construction and a program for agriculture as key drivers of growth.
Bonilla, who had said he wanted the benchmark interest rate to be lowered at the central bank’s meeting last month as well as at the one next month, said the board should consider recent drops in inflation falls at its next December meeting.
The government’s DANE statistics agency will publish third-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday, Nov. 15.
The central bank’s technical team now expects economic growth in 2024 of 0.8%, down from a previous 1% forecast.
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