Key News
Asian equity markets were mixed on light volumes as Nvidia’s earnings results and the company’s mention of US government restrictions on chip exports weighed on tech stocks in the region.
One should assume that the stockpiling of chips has been occurring, which could diminish future sales in my opinion. Amazing the non-reaction/yawn for Nvidia on US government restrictions while Alibaba’s mention of chip restrictions pummeled the stock.
Trip.com’s US ADR fell -10.61% yesterday after releasing Q3 financial results in line with expectations once the Hong Kong market had closed. Given the same Q3 financial results, Trip.com’s HK listing fell -4.06% today. I thought Trip.com’s results were good as Q3 2023 adjusted net income increased to RMB 4.9 billion ($673 million) from RMB 1 billion in Q3 2022.
Baidu’s US ADR rose +1.91% yesterday, while its HK listing rose +2.75% today. The performance disparity is a decent sentiment proxy, though US-China diplomatic relations improving should help sentiment as Mainland China approved the Broadcom VMware yesterday. Yesterday’s market action in US-listed China ADRs was a head-scratcher as they fell for no reason other than US stocks were off.
There was a fair amount of chatter that Jack Ma’s foundation might sell a small amount of Alibaba shares, though the rumors appear to be false.
Real estate was the top performer in Hong Kong again, gaining +0.5% as the government’s “white list” of fifty real estate developers who will receive financing support gained attention. US dollar-denominated high-yield bonds rallied (again) in response, but investor interest remains non-existent, which likely means the rally will continue. It is feasible that we will look back in a year and say, “What an opportunity”! In full disclosure, I am long the space.
Hong Kong’s most heavily traded were Tencent -0.12%, Alibaba HK +1.12%, Xiaomi -1.69%, Meituan +0.81%, and Kuiashou +2.91%. Mainland investors bought a healthy $663 million of Hong Kong-listed stocks and ETFs. Mainland China was off as foreign investors sold -$494 million of Mainland stocks via Northbound Stock Connect. Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite appear to be taking a breather after coming off lows in mid/late October. Catalysts coming? I’ve not seen a December date set for the Central Economic Work Conference, a significant economic meeting, though it is coming along with a potential bank reserve requirement ratio cut. Mainland China’s slow, incremental economic rebound has weighed on sentiment, though the economy is improving. A grind higher would be preferred to the meteoric rise post Zero COVID policy removal. The US dollar firmed versus the renminbi and Asia dollar index.
The Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech were closed flat at 0.0% and down -0.18% on volume -24.35% from yesterday, which is 74% of the 1-year average. 168 stocks advanced, while 292 declined. Main Board short turnover increased by +5.74% from yesterday, which is 103% of the 1-year average, as 23% of turnover was short turnover (remember Hong Kong short turnover includes ETF short volume, which is driven by market makers’ ETF hedging). The value factor and large caps outpaced the growth factor and small caps. The top sectors were real estate +0.5%, communication +0.46%, and energy +0.39%, while tech -1.76%, healthcare -1.52%, and industrials -0.92%. The top sub-sectors were food/staples, telecom, and real estate, while semis, technical hardware, and pharmaceuticals were the worst. Southbound Stock Connect volumes were moderate as Mainland investors bought $663 million of Hong Kong stocks and ETFs.
Shanghai, Shenzhen, and STAR Board fell -0.79%, -1.2%, and -1.6% on volume -12.2% from yesterday, which is 100% of the 1-year average. 926 stocks advanced, while 3,938 declined. The value factor and large caps outpaced the growth factor and small caps. All sectors were negative, with tech -2.05%, discretionary -1.87%, and materials -1.75%. The top sub-sectors were cultural media, telecom, and soft drinks, while motorcycles, communication equipment, and power generation equipment were the worst. Northbound Stock Connect volumes were light as foreign investors sold -$494 million of Mainland stocks. CNY and the Asia dollar index eased versus the US dollar. Treasury bonds were sold along with copper while steel gained.
Last Night’s Performance
Last Night’s Exchange Rates, Prices, & Yields
- CNY per USD 7.15 versus 7.13 yesterday
- CNY per EUR 7.80 versus 7.81 yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year Government Bond 2.68% versus 2.66% yesterday
- Yield on 10-Year China Development Bank Bond 2.75% versus 2.73% yesterday
- Copper Price -0.26% overnight
- Steel Price +0.65% overnight
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