The Euro (EUR) experienced its worst trading day since July on Thursday, as the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled the potential end of its rate hike cycle. The pair is set to close in the red for the ninth consecutive week, falling into the sub-1.0640 region, marking a six-month low for the Euro against the US Dollar (USD).
The ECB, under President Christine Lagarde, delivered a 25-basis-point rate increase, hinting at no further rate hikes as the European Union (EU) aims to maintain economic stability. Lagarde noted that the broad European economy is likely to encounter soft spots in 2024, particularly in the services sector.
Market expectations for another ECB rate hike have completely evaporated, with investors now predicting the first rate cut from the ECB next March. This dovish stance by the ECB has resulted in a steepening bearish trend for the EUR/USD pair.
Technical analysis shows that if the current downtrend continues without any relief rally, EUR/USD could potentially reach 2023’s low near 1.0550, set back in March of this year. The 100-day Simple Moving Average has begun to turn bearish into the 1.0900 handles, and sellers are awaiting a bearish cross of the 50- and 100-day SMAs to accelerate declines.
Meanwhile, the pair rose approximately 1.1% yesterday, benefitting from firmer commodity prices and the dovish ECB rate hike. This marks its strongest day since late July, taking it to its highest level since August 2nd. Bulls are now targeting a break through the high from August 1 at €0.6115 and the 200-Day EMA which comes in at €0.6186.
On a different note, Nvidia (NASDAQ:) stock gained 1.2% in Thursday’s premarket to just above $460 on general excitement over the Arm Holdings (ARM) IPO, with NASDAQ futures adding 0.5% at the time of writing.
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