The record gold rush may intensify into year-end.
According to NewEdge Wealth’s Ben Emons, the final month of the year typically creates a bigger appetite for the yellow metal.
“It’s been very consistent every December. It’s been a pretty strong performance for gold — especially when there is a rally in the stock market in November,” the firm’s head of fixed income told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.
Gold settled at a new record high Friday. It closed the day up almost 2%, at $2,089.70 an ounce.
Emons listed the economic backdrop and geopolitical backdrop as additional positive catalysts for gold.
“There’s uncertainty next year. We have an election. We don’t know what’s going to happen. We get a recession maybe, maybe not,” said Emons. “At the same time, gold rallies when there’s this risk-on feel in the markets, and that’s really when real rates and interest rates are declining. This gives the gold a really good push for the breakout.”
In a note to clients this week, Emons wrote that months for both gold and stocks are a “rare combo.” Gold gained 3% while the Dow and S&P 500 were both up almost 9% in November.
“[It] tends to occur when markets price in major easing cycles,” he wrote. “Currently, that is going on in a mild manner, which puts the spotlight on the seasonals of gold.”
Emons suggests the strength will continue into next year.
“Central banks are again outbidding gold against dwindling supply, likely setting up the metal for a major breakthrough towards 2100 … lifting boats for laggards like utilities have a shot to claim market leadership by early 2024,” Emons also wrote.
“Fast Money” trader Guy Adami also sees gold shining due to the dollar‘s recent performance.
“If rates continue to go lower, the dollar will go lower. That will be a tailwind for gold,” he said. “Gold is within a whisper of having a huge breakout to the upside.”
As of Friday’s close, gold is up more than 14% so far this year.
Read the full article here