Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign, anticipating losses among some corners of the party’s coalition in Michigan, is zeroing in on a strategy that they think will help overcome those losses by locking in reliably Democratic voters and growing their numbers among others.
The trouble spots they see are among White, working-class voters, young Black men, and some in the Arab American community. The strategy for making up for their depressed support includes making gains with White college-educated voters in the suburbs, and young voters, peeling off some Republicans and capitalizing on early voting in Michigan —which, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — remains one of the most favorable paths to victory for the Democratic nominee.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by less than 3 points after former President Donald Trump narrowly won it four years earlier. Polls from Quinnipiac University, released last week, found Harris’ advantages have slimmed in Pennsylvania and disappeared in Michigan, while Wisconsin continues to be a tight race.
Michigan Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Democrat, told MSNBC over the weekend: “I don’t believe either candidate has won this state yet. I think it’s going to be razor thin. I think it’s going to come down to who votes. And I think either candidate can win this race right now.”
There are three demographics in Michigan that Harris campaign officials have identified as strengths: older Black voters, young voters, and White, college-educated voters who are turned off by Trump.
“Where we are with older Black voters, what we’re doing with youth, and support and engagement among some suburban voters, is something that I think we will exceed, or have real opportunities to exceed, what we’ve seen in past cycles,” said one senior campaign official.
The strategy boils down to this, according to the senior Harris campaign officials: grow the number of people voting early in Michigan, and as Election Day nears, focus more narrowly on people who have not yet cast their ballots and require more convincing.
Much of that relies on the campaign’s ground game, which includes 52 offices across the state — both in Democratic strongholds and traditionally conservative communities. That also includes college campuses where the campaign has deployed staff to focus on engaging younger voters.
“It’s a tremendous challenge to introduce someone to a segment of voters and then define that trust and then convert that trust into a vote on Election Day. But that is the hard work that we’re doing,” said another senior Harris campaign official.
Older voters make up a larger share of people requesting ballots so far, compared with this point in 2020. In Michigan, for example, they account for 51%, up from 40%. The racial breakdown of voters requesting ballots in Michigan is almost identical to what it was at this point in 2020.
This year, Michigan voters will also have the option to vote early in person for the first time in a presidential election.
Campaign officials are also targeting their areas of weakness with specific outreach efforts.
This week, for example, Harris is unveiling economic proposals appealing to Black voters, and the campaign is deploying surrogates to communities to engage with people on the local level. She’ll travel to Detroit for a Tuesday radio town hall hosted by nationally syndicated radio co-host Charlamagne tha God, who has millions of followers across digital platforms, while “The Breakfast Club” enjoys a vast nationwide audience, much of it Black. She’ll also return to Michigan later in the week.
But another area of concern is the Arab American community.
Then-candidate Biden’s victory in the Michigan Democratic primary came with a warning from progressives, young voters and Arab American Democrats in the form of an “uncommitted” protest vote that earned more than 100,000 votes: change course on Israel’s war in Gaza or risk losing a significant chunk of support in what could be a decisive general election state.
Harris hasn’t substantially strayed from Biden’s position on Israel. But earlier this month, she met with Arab American leaders in Michigan, home to a large Arab American population.
Emgage Action, an organization aimed at boosting the Muslim American vote, endorsed Harris last month while acknowledging “strong disappointment” with the Biden administration’s stance on Gaza. But divisions within the community remain.
Two prominent Arab American groups based in the Detroit metro area — Arab American PAC and The Arab American News — have decided not to endorse a candidate for president, Arab American News publisher Osama Siblani told CNN on Monday.
“We are asking them to skip,” Siblani said of voters in Michigan. “Both candidates — Trump and Harris — do not meet our expectations.”
The groups will send a letter explaining their decision to about 75,000 homes in southeast Michigan later this week, he said.
“We’re kind of doing our best to hold the ground or limit losses,” said the first senior Harris campaign official, when asked about potentially losing votes in the Arab American community. “We may not get all the votes you would have expected from previous cycles but they are going to be made up for when you’re thinking about path to victory.”
CNN’s Kylie Atwood contributed to this report.
This story has been updated with additional information.
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