Electric-vehicle sales are setting U.S. records. This past week, Cox Automotive updated its U.S. forecasts, saying all new-car sales should come in at about 15.4 million units this year, up from 2022’s 14.2 million but trailing prepandemic sales of nearly 17 million. As for EVs, this-quarter unit sales should come in just about 300,000, up 48% year over year, and a record 8% of new-car sales.
That’s where the good EV news ends. EV dealer inventories are running at 97 days of demand, compared with 57 for traditional vehicles, a sign that the industry has made too many EVs.
Ford Motor’s
U.S. EV sales rose 6% year over year through August, while
Tesla’s
grew 30% from a year earlier in the first half. Production delays explain some of Ford’s growth, but EV demand is also an issue.
Cox projects that EV sales will account for 23% of all new-car sales in California in the third quarter, while the figure in Michigan and Ohio—Ford and
General Motors
country—is 3%. Both have lots of assembly plants and employees there, but locals aren’t rushing to buy EVs. One reason: cold weather, which can cut EV range by 20%-25%. One solution: heat the cabin while the car is plugged in.
Ford and GM should be explaining that to customers. They could also offer more incentives or home-charging hookups to drive sales. They’d better. The EV industry is out of the early-adoption phase when any cool new model would sell. Now, it’s all about smart marketing and incentives.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
Last Week
Markets
Treasury bond yields rose, sending stocks down as September ended, oil rose, and Congress staggered toward a government shutdown. On the week, the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
was off 1.34%, the
S&P 500
fell 0.74%, and the
Nasdaq Composite
gained 0.06%. The S&P 500 fell 3.65% for the quarter, its first down quarter this year.
Companies
Hollywood writers reached a tentative agreement with the studios after a nearly five-month strike.
Ford Motor
suspended construction of a $3.5 billion EV battery plant that would have used Chinese battery technology. The auto workers expanded their strike against Ford and
General Motors.
The Federal Trade Commission and 17 state attorneys general sued
Amazon.com
for “using a set of interlocking anticompetitive and unfair strategies to maintain its monopoly power.” A New York State judge ruled that former President Trump fraudulently inflated the value of his assets.
China Evergrande Group
suspended trading in Hong Kong after its founder came under police surveillance.
Deals
Amazon took a $1.25 billion stake in AI firm Anthropic, which could go to $4 billion… Wells Fargo agreed to partner with asset manager Centerbridge in a $5 billion private credit fund to lend to midsize companies. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign-wealth fund and Canadian pension fund British Columbia Investment Management have already agreed to equity commitments…Start-up food delivery service Wonder Group said it is buying
Blue Apron
for $103 million.
Write to Robert Teitelman at [email protected]
Next Week
Monday 10/2
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a 48 reading, slightly higher than the August figure. The ISM releases its Services
PMI
on Wednesday. Expectations are for a 53.5 reading, one point less than in August.
Tuesday 10/3
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August. Economists forecast 8.8 million job openings, roughly even with the July data. Job openings are down 27% from their record peak in March 2022 but remain above historical averages. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that “although the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers.”
Friday 10/6
The BLS releases the jobs report for September. The consensus call is for nonfarm payrolls to increase by 155,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 3.7% from 3.8%. Jobs growth has cooled recently from the blistering pace of the past two years. The three-month average through August was a gain of roughly 150,000, compared with an average increase of 438,000 a month for the two years through May 2023.
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