The numbers: The U.S. leading economic index fell 0.6% in April and declined for the 13th month in a row, pointing once again to a potential recession later in the year.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% drop.
The leading economic index, also known as the LEI, is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. The report is published by the nonprofit Conference Board.
Key details: Eight of the 10 indicators tracked by the Conference Board fell in April.
A measure of current economic conditions, meanwhile, rose by 0.3% in April.
The so-called lagging index — a look in the rearview mirror — dipped 0.1%.
Big picture: The economy has slowed in response to higher interest rates. Yet the leading index has been signaling a recession for months, and there’s still little sign of one.
Looking ahead: “The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in the second quarter, leading to a mild recession by mid-2023,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at the Conference Board.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
and S&P 500
SPX,
fell in Thursday trading.
Read the full article here