Big finance companies on Wall Street, such as JP Morgan, Citigroup (NYSE:), and Nomura, have increased their predictions for China’s economic growth in 2023. This change comes after receiving positive economic information. However, they also emphasized the need for more economic support.
Information made public on Wednesday showed that China’s total economic output, also known as gross domestic product (GDP), grew by 4.9% from July to September. This growth is higher than what was expected and is compared to the same time last year. Along with this, data showed a rise in spending and industrial activity in September. This suggests a slow and careful recovery, helped by recent policies. However, the growth rate in this third quarter was slower than the 6.3% growth seen in the second quarter.
Citigroup has changed its prediction for China’s GDP growth in 2023 to 5.3%, up from its previous prediction of 5%. JP Morgan and Nomura now expect growth rates of 5.2% and 5.1% respectively. Goldman Sachs has slightly lowered its forecast to 5.3% from 5.4%, but this is still above the official goal set by Beijing, which is 5% growth for the year.
Economists at JP Morgan, led by Haibin Zhu, are hopeful about the strong economic activity in September. They believe this trend will continue in the coming months. However, they also noted that weak GDP growth, which includes inflation, could slow down the recovery in private investment because of a difficult earnings and profit outlook.
Economists at Morgan Stanley, led by Jenny Zheng, believe more economic support and changes are needed to prevent a possible cycle of debt and falling prices. Zheng suggested that since the 5% growth target seems reachable, policy measures could be saved for next year.
In order to respond to slowing growth, Beijing has recently put in place several measures. These include increasing public works spending, reducing interest rates, easing property rules, and efforts to strengthen the private sector. However, worries about debt risks and a weak yuan have limited the government’s ability to boost growth.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that the upcoming central economic work conference in December will give more policy direction. At the same time, JP Morgan predicts that China’s potential growth may decrease faster than originally thought in 2024 and 2025, dropping to a range of 4%-4.5% and 3.5%-4% respectively.
Reuters contributed to this article.
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