Joe Biden’s prediction of an imminent “thaw” in US-China relations was quickly followed on Sunday by a reminder of how much tension still exists between Washington and Beijing.
Within hours of the US president’s words at the end of a G7 summit in Japan, China ordered a swath of its infrastructure companies to stop buying from US chipmaker Micron.
It underscored the big challenges to stabilising US-China relations at the end of a summit in Hiroshima where Biden and other leaders of the advanced economies issued their harshest criticism of Beijing — while also acknowledging the need to co-operate with China.
The summit communique sparked an angry response from Beijing, which summoned Japan’s ambassador to China to protest.
Chinese foreign policy experts said the G7 statement — which also showed the US and Japan’s success in persuading European countries such as Germany and France to take a stronger stance against China — would further complicate relations.
“The G7 communique points the finger at China in every dimension,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. It would “make China even less willing to co-operate with the G7 to address issues of their concern”, Wu added.
For months, Washington and Beijing have struggled to follow through on an agreement made between Biden and President Xi Jinping at a meeting in Indonesia in November to set a “floor” under the relationship. The Chinese spy balloon detected over the US this year — which Biden referred to on Sunday as a “silly balloon” — led Washington to cancel a visit to Beijing by secretary of state Antony Blinken.
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan insisted on Saturday that the G7 conclusions would not affect efforts to reschedule Blinken’s trip or agree possible visits by Treasury secretary Janet Yellen and commerce secretary Gina Raimondo.
China experts in the US also said that while the G7’s criticism of China would go down badly in Beijing, it would not derail all efforts to restart high-level engagement.
Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China analyst and White House official, said he believed Xi would still proceed with “tactical efforts” to try to achieve what was discussed with Biden. “It needs a stable international environment in which the US and its allies do not decouple their economies from China or take measures to move Taiwan toward independence,” said Wilder.
One potential focus is the economy. “The Chinese appear to want to engage in an effort to stabilise US-China relations . . . partly due to concerns about the economy,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund. But she cautioned that China was “cherry picking” which officials it would meet.
An early test will come this week when China’s commerce minister Wang Wentao is due to become the first senior Chinese official to visit Washington since 2020. Wang is scheduled to meet US trade representative Katherine Tai at an Apec trade meeting in Detroit and then travel to Washington to meet Raimondo.
In a positive sign from China, its nationalist Global Times tabloid said at the weekend that Wang’s meetings showed both sides “recognised the importance of economic and trade relations”.
One US official said Wang’s visit was “small ‘m’ momentum as we all find our footing”.
While Wang’s meetings in the US and the possible visits to China by Yellen and Raimondo could help ease tensions over trade, experts said the faultlines in the two countries’ relations were now much more focused on technology-related national security issues, economic coercion and tension over Taiwan.
One former US official warned that the latest tension over Micron — which Beijing’s regulator said posed security risks — would have serious ramifications for US-China relations.
“The Chinese leadership should understand that this action will make it impossible to stabilise relations, and the attempt to kill Micron will lead to much stronger and more far-reaching decoupling actions from the Biden administration and the US Congress,” he said.
While the US and China want to mend relations — even if they have not been able to agree the terms for top-level meetings and a possible call between Biden and Xi — some US and China experts question if high-level engagement will have much impact given that Washington and Beijing appear committed to maintaining policies that the other opposes.
Wu said he did not have “high expectations” of much progress, saying the 2024 US presidential election and Biden’s candidacy meant politics would drive Washington’s agenda on China.
Zhao Hai, dean of the National Institute for Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences government think-tank, added there was a serious lack of trust. He pointed to the example of the US targeting China with export controls shortly after Biden and Xi met in Indonesia.
“Even if we continue to communicate, there’s no fruit, there are no results,” said Zhao. “Now it’s our turn to want to see results.”
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