It’s been six presidential elections since a nonincumbent front-runner at this point in the primary cycle had a national polling lead larger than Donald Trump’s right now. That candidate, George W. Bush, would go on to handily become the Republican nominee in 2000.
As the 2024 GOP candidates emerge from their second debate, recent history suggests they should be cautious about their chances of toppling the undisputed front-runner, who again skipped the event. The former president is supported by 58% of the potential GOP primary electorate, 43 points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 15%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, an average of five national surveys from September 7-24.
The most recent comparable lead at this point in the cycle was in September 1999, when a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush ahead of Elizabeth Dole 62% to 10% among registered Republicans, a 52-point margin.
In more than half of the presidential primary contests without an incumbent from this century, the September front-runner in these polls the year prior to an election did not become the nominee — only Democrat Hillary Clinton and Trump in 2015 maintained their closer-margin leads to top their parties’ tickets the following year.
But Trump is no ordinary candidate, with no ordinary lead. He’s built his political career on breaking Washington’s rules. And while he’s a nonincumbent on paper, he has held the office before. His legal woes could be the only real challenge to his campaign.
Here’s how all the open-contest presidential primary candidates were polling in the September before an election year, and who became the eventual party nominee.
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